We have been hearing about crematoriums running all day long, burial grounds running out of space as we are almost touching 3000 corona deaths per day.
I looked up the normal death statistics in India.
If we convert it to a per day basis, it is 9855000/ 365 = 27000.
That means that India's death rate normally is about 27000 per day. Remember that India's covid deaths are about 3000 per day (at the time of writing).
Covid deaths are just about 10% of the normal deaths. How come our crematoriums and burial grounds are overflowing with just 10% extra deaths?
If we consider Delhi with a population of 20 million, the daily deaths in the city normally would be (7.3/1000*20,000,000)/365 = 400.
If we assume that the daily Covid deaths in cities in India are proportional to the population of the cities then covid deaths in Delhi should be about 10% of the normal deaths in Delhi and hence should be about 40. Is this number anywhere close to reality?
Read this:
https://www.ndtv.com/delhi-news/delhi-coronavirus-deaths-over-1-000-covid-deaths-missing-in-delhi-data-reveal-civic-records-2422628 - enlightening.
What gives?
A friend disagreed. This is what he had to say:
I do not disagree with this analysis and I am sure there are codifying errors that skew the numbers but the only angle I feel is not to be concluded as siva is saying... that the numbers are being manipulated with intent to do so ..for if that is the case then we need not see death rate go up from 150 a day on an averages to 3500 a day on an average.....
Also logistics wise in a normal death there will be. T+1 time window of the body reaching crematorium....and people will wait either for an overseas relative to come or even to get a slot in a crematorium of choice ....the 15 percent surge is now perhaps coming in like an adrenaline surge as bodies are being instantly disposed..causing the overload on the ecosystem....
Cruel scenes sans cruel intent in governance is my only submission....
Additional reading:
- https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/tnm-investigation-scores-covid-19-deaths-bengaluru-missing-state-count-147912
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/01/india-coronavirus/
- The Hindu: Facts and figures: On India’s COVID-19 death count.
- The Indian Express: In Bhopal, official Covid toll in April is 109, but over 2,500 at pyres, graves.
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/06/india-coronavirus-deaths/
- https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/indias-uncounted-covid-19-deaths
- The Wire: 'Not COVID': Stunned by Data, Gujarat Blames Death Certificate Spurt on Duplicate Registrations.
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-deadliest-covid-day/2021/05/19/2452925c-b89a-11eb-bc4a-62849cf6cca9_story.html - similar thoughts as mine expressed by Shahid Jameel
- Mint: The reality of this pandemic in our villages cannot stay hidden.
- The Hindu: It’s like participating in a procession of the dead, says Kolkata crematorium official.
- https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/shocking-drone-footage-shows-a-mass-burial-site-of-hundreds-of-covid-19-victims-on-the-banks-of-indias-ganges-river/ar-AAKgKPb?li=BBnb7Kz
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-coronavirus-ganges-river-bodies/2021/05/21/73cbced6-b811-11eb-bc4a-62849cf6cca9_story.html
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/30/covid-victims-overwhelm-delhi-crematoriums?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other - interesting that this article mentions that the daily deaths in Delhi is 395 as against normal daily deaths in Delhi mentioned earlier in this post of about 400.
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/24/india-covid-rural-india-deaths-modi/ - Quote: "It’s probably an understatement to suggest that the real death toll is at least five times the actual figures."
- https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/24/india-failed-save-living-covid-19-now-it-wont-count-dead/ - Graphic video
- Just How Big Could India’s True Covid Toll Be? Numbers.
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/30/kumbh-mela-how-a-superspreader-festival-seeded-covid-across-india?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other: Quote "Why did only my father die when we were 11 members there?” said Thakur. “It is not a virus which kills. The death is destined. I have no regrets.” and "But as media attention focused on Covid-19 cases among the Kumbh returnees, the officials were ordered to stop counting. Four officials in different districts of Madhya Pradesh, as well as officials in Rajasthan, confirmed to the Guardian that their seniors called them off for political reasons."
- https://science.thewire.in/health/the-reasons-to-believe-indias-tragedy-is-worse-than-it-looks/
- The Indian Express: No Covid funerals for two straight days at East Delhi crematoriums.: Quote "On April 29 alone, 717 bodies came to the cremation grounds of Delhi for last rites as per covid-19 protocol, which means around 30 bodies every hour."
- https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/tn-underreported-covid-deaths-in-6-tn-hospitals-ngo-101623840130782.html
- https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-registers-fourth-fastest-weekly-growth-in-vaccinations-among-large-countries-11624516616268.html: "
Cumulative 'excess deaths' across 8 states are 10.5 times reported covid-19 deaths"
- As India’s Lethal Covid Wave Neared, Politics Overrode Science
- Deccan Herald: Backlog of Covid-19 deaths surfaces in Bengaluru.
- India Is Stalling the W.H.O.’s Efforts to Make Global Covid Death Toll Public
- https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/health/covid-global-deaths.html?smid=url-copy
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