Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Covid Deaths In India

We have been hearing about crematoriums running all day long, burial grounds running out of space as we are almost touching 3000 corona deaths per day.


I looked up the normal death statistics in India. 



That's about 7.3 deaths per year per thousand population. With a population of about 135 crores (1350 million) our annual deaths should be about (7.3 / 1000) * (1350 * 1000000) = 9,855,000.


If we convert it to a per day basis, it is 9855000/ 365 = 27000.


That means that India's death rate normally is about 27000 per day. Remember that India's covid deaths are about 3000 per day (at the time of writing).


Covid deaths are just about 10% of the normal deaths. How come our crematoriums and burial grounds are overflowing with just 10% extra deaths?


If we consider Delhi with a population of 20 million, the daily deaths in the city normally would be (7.3/1000*20,000,000)/365 = 400. 

If we assume that the daily Covid deaths in cities in India are proportional to the population of the cities then covid deaths in Delhi should be about 10% of the normal deaths in Delhi and hence should be about 40. Is this number anywhere close to reality?


Read this:

https://www.ndtv.com/delhi-news/delhi-coronavirus-deaths-over-1-000-covid-deaths-missing-in-delhi-data-reveal-civic-records-2422628 - enlightening.





What gives?


A friend disagreed. This is what he had to say:

I do not disagree with this analysis and I am sure there are codifying errors that skew the numbers but the only angle I feel is not to be concluded as siva is saying... that the numbers are being manipulated with intent to do so ..for if that is the case then we need not see death rate go up from 150 a day on an averages to 3500 a day on an average.....


Also logistics wise in a normal death there will be. T+1 time window of the body reaching crematorium....and people will wait either for an overseas relative to come or even to get a slot in a crematorium of choice ....the 15 percent surge is now perhaps coming in like an adrenaline surge as bodies are being instantly disposed..causing the overload on the ecosystem....


Cruel scenes sans cruel intent in governance is my only submission....


Additional reading:

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