Emotions And Ukraine War

A conversation between my friend and me about the Ukraine situation. 

Polish Friend: I'm not in favour of Putin, but I'm also not in favour of Ukraine. I just hope that we, Poland, will not get involved.

Me: Well I think you are going to be [involved] as things stand now. You will fight on behalf of Ukraine, If you ever get involved.

PF: I really hope we won't.

Me: You won't like what I am going to tell you. But I anticipated that the war (not "special military operation") will proceed and involve NATO. I sold stocks anticipating it. Note that this is not my wish. But what I think will happen. My money is at stake!!

PF: Is that supposed to be a joke?

Me: Why do you ask that?

PF: Because it is ridiculous.

Me: What is ridiculous?

PF: Should I bet that India and Bangladesh go to war??

This conversation was illuminating to me. Note that my friend asked me whether she should bet and not whether she should wish for a war between India and Bangladesh. Meaning, she understood that I was betting and not hoping for a war. And she still thinks that a bet is offensive. A bet is the result of analysis, not what we hope will happen. The belief that a logic thought is no different from a desire is striking. 

An emotional person doesn't get the difference between what we wish and what we think will likely happen and hence conflates the two. Just as they don't understand the concept of cause and effect. They often think that the cause is the result of the effect.

Strange.

Additional reading 

Acknowledging the Limits of Sanctions: Very nice article