Road To War

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-road-to-war/

Reverse Engineering Russian Drones

U.S. Technology, a Longtime Tool for Russia, Becomes a Vulnerability 

Additional reading:

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/china-nears-launch-of-advanced-aircraft-carrier-satellite-images-show-11654186451: How much of the ship's parts came from the West?

Opinion of Democracies About Russia

My friend:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/30/negative-views-of-russia-mainly-limited-to-western-liberal-democracies-poll-shows?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Not everyone thinks of Russia as a bad boy it seems. Negative views of Russia is limited largely to Western democracies. The Indians have a net positive view of Russia.  Negative views of China are more widespread than of Russia. I think public perception of Russia is almost entirely dependent upon what their government thinks, and what the press in their country tells them. The Western leaders are all strongly anti-Russia, and so are the press and media here in contrast to other countries. Is the press in India more pro-Russia? If it is, that would explain the Indian perception of Russia?

My response:

Western democracies  (than Asian / African / south american) are very anti Russia because the issue is happening in Europe and in a "white" country. 

The same reason why when Finland and Sweden decided to join NATO, everyone (except Turkey) was keen to accept them. While Ukraine was left in limbo for many years.

Meaning there is a pecking order even among white countries. In terms of importance,  Scandinavia > Ukraine > say Moldova >  Macedonia and so on.

And when it was about Afghanistan, of course USA and UK did try to help. But what was the level of involvement? Was it anywhere like how they are involved in Ukraine?

A second season could be that countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Macedonia are hardly relevant to the world order unlike Scandinavia or even Ukraine. 

Rules Based

 A friend sent me this article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/28/united-states-should-practice-the-rules-based-order-it-preaches/. She asked: Why are so many democracies unwilling to condemn Russia?

My response: "A much better way to frame the division in the world is between countries that believe in a rules-based international order and those that don’t. " From the same article. 

If Western democracies were  so rule bound as the author suggests why were UK USA etc in bed with Saudi, China and Russia all these years? Why was uk so cosy with Russian oligarchs until the Ukraine invasion? How did those oligarchs suddenly become persona non grata in Feb this year? 

Why are we still doing business with China or Saudi (despite what we know Saudi did to khashoggi)? 

Are we, Western democracies, so honorable really? Isn't survival the driving force really behind our actions? Do we think the western democracies were ignorant until Feb? 

Why this holier than thou attitude suddenly?

Imran Khan And Pakistan

 Interesting articles about the man that show his character.

Imran Khan blames America for his downfall. He should blame himself.

Additional reading:

• https://www.rt.com/news/554069-political-crisis-pakistan-foreign-police/

Desire And Image Gets Us To Our Goal

I had a very interesting conversation with a friend about the current Ukraine situation and Indian stance.

Friend: Modi's condemnation of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding there will slightly soften the West's attitude to India. India's decision to sit on the fence in the UN Security Council resolution to condemn Russia did not go down very well in the West.

Me: India is a non entity.

Friend: India may not be as much of a non-entity as you think. If it was, why did the West criticise their recent decision? Nobody criticised North Korea, Sri  Lanka  etc.

Me: True to some extent. The only way India makes a difference in this equation is that it may buy oil from Russia (but not food grains, India itself exports that and hence competes against Russia). Plus the defence contracts and [India's need for] spares will provide revenue to Russia. I doubt India will [in future] buy any military requirements from Russia. Otherwise who gives a damn whether India votes for Russia or against.

Friend: It's all about the impression that people have about India. We do want the world to think of India as democratic, liberal (now under threat according to the West), has freedom of speech, independent press - all features constituting motherhood and apple pie. Don't we?

Me: :) you are talking about what we want. I am talking about what is. 

Friend: Yes to get what we want, we want to be seen to be on the right.

The parts in italics are so revealing, eye opening.

Friend: Referring to the article above: "This is one of the numerous articles we have seen recently about why democracy is still motherhood and apple pie! You asked the other day, I am sure only to engage in constructive discussion, about the point of this war because Ukraine cannot win on its own because of Russian military superiority. This tells us why."

Imaginative Zelensky

I had a wild thought. What if zelensky is in cahoots with Putin? What if he is no different now from Lukashenko, except that zelensky is acting the part of a patriot. 

Why could this be true? Ukraine knows 

1. It cannot win against mighty Russia

2. It cannot really count on USA, NATO, EU to help much, I mean they won't join the war against Russia. 

He and Putin could have forged a wartime "friendship" to fake an Ukrainian resistance that would ultimately give in. Zelensky will be called a hero. Putin will reward him quietly and substantially when the time comes. Say, $50 million deposited in a numbered account with Zelensky as the beneficiary, nobody will be the wiser. 

Everyone is happy.

Putin's Character And The Ukraine War

I was thinking. Why did Putin claim he wasn't going to invade when he did exactly that few days later. I figured out an answer

In his mind, Ukraine was always part of Russia. Invasion is about an action to take over what is not yours.

Ukraine was his anyway. So it wasn't an "invasion". 

Here is an article on Bill Barr: Bill Barr wants to be remembered as a truth teller? That’s a clown show.

• https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a44c8b24-9707-11ec-bcb9-65f2c5c7f961?shareToken=b62e2ad97a4531b99cb7233ba9b44aa6
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/russia-ukraine-conflict-top-10-war-myths-newsguard?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other Putin's lies are so similar to Trump's.
  

This is a lovely article: https://nyti.ms/3tYGlWF.

This article is original and different. The rest have largely portrayed a surreal depiction of how the West brought Russia to its knees. Too much focus on the process (sanctions) and desire (want Putin to withdraw) without an evidence of the end result (is Russia withdrawing) makes all the essays drab

Additional reading:

• https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/21/ukraine-invasion-putin-goals-what-expect/?utm_campaign=wp_week_in_ideas&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_ideas
• https://vbala99.blogspot.com/2020/11/trumps-character.html
  
• U.N. court orders Russia to halt its invasion of Ukraine, in a largely symbolic ruling: "If one of the conflict parties is “ignoring basic principles of law, there’s a question about the utility of invoking the law vis-a-vis that party when you don’t have a strong enforcement power,” said Yuval Shany, an international law expert at Hebrew University in Jerusalem."
• Watching Russia’s military failures is exhilarating. But a cornered Putin is dangerous.
  
• The Making of Vladimir Putin: Very nice
  
• Putin Knows What He’s Doing With Ukraine’s Refugees. This Is the World’s Big Test.
  
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/05/putin-indiscriminate-bombing-ukraine-plain-bad-strategy/
  
• Why Tracking Putin’s Wealth Is So Difficult
  
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/09/understanding-vladimir-putin-the-man-who-fooled-the-world?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other: long nice article
  
• If Putin isn’t stopped in Ukraine, the Baltics are likely next
  
• https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/af9decea-c00e-11ec-8413-422ef6319ad0?shareToken=eb4daee564fc6ee59c2b908241604fbb
  
• Banning Russian Tennis Players Won’t Stop the War. So Why Is Wimbledon Doing It?
  
• Putin Used Conspiracy Theories Before. Now He Seems to Believe Them.
  
• www.wsj.com/amp/articles/the-strategic-logic-of-russia-war-on-ukraine-putin-leverage-western-europe-invasion-peace-negotiations-sanctions-weaken-russia-11650917047: nice article
  
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/26/russias-war-in-ukraine-threatens-to-spill-over-in-dangerous-new-phase?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  
• https://www.rt.com/russia/554166-international-law-military-operation-ukraine/: From Russia with Love
  
• https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/01/what-is-to-be-done-lenin-west-wont-win-in-ukraine-without-taking-risks?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
  
• How Russia’s grim demographics could thwart Putin’s global ambitions
  
• https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ca1ad6ea-d2d4-11ec-9d8b-0826aa666f4f?shareToken=8d647745a2741da86aef419884a921a3: very nice
  
• New Evidence Shows How Russian Soldiers Executed Men in Bucha: Gory
  
• https://wsj-article-webview-generator-prod.sc.onservo.com/webview/SB10602110242320993953804588549711285607342?adobe_mc=TS%3D1653059585%7CMCMID%3D20218715617449547338714924480703942152%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg&wsj_native_webview=androidphone
  
• Putin Rules Russia Like an Asylum
  
• Russia Is a Potemkin Superpower: Very nice when reading it 3 months after it was written. 
  
• https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b16b152e-e355-11ec-8bdd-c253e043f5f0?shareToken=144ba9eaf04454046bae1a72704e845c: Should Putin be assassinated?
  
• Three Paths Toward an Endgame for Putin’s War
  
• https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2022/11/18/how-putins-war-is-causing-global-instability?giftId=7a1ef58b-4daf-4e64-9d9a-2d128b7d19a4