Fauci

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2022/06/27/anthony-fauci-post-pandemic-interview/

Skiing Things Right - Norway During Pandemic

 Norway Was a Pandemic Success. Then It Spent Two Years Studying Its Failures.

Lovely.

Dainik And Divya And IT Raids

https://m.thewire.in/article/health/not-covid-stunned-by-data-gujarat-blames-death-certificate-spurt-on-duplicate-registrations

Above is an article that tried to explain how Gujrat government had understated the Covid deaths. The article refers to a study by the Gujarati daily Divya Bhaskar, which you can see referred to in the screenshot below from the article above. 

Today, I read this article below:

Income Tax department raids media group Dainik Bhaskar's offices at multiple locations

I found that Divya Bhaskar, which alleged that Gujrat undercounted Covid deaths, and Dainik Bhaskar, whose offices were raided by Income Tax, belong to the same group.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divya_Bhaskar

Is it a case of retribution? Or just coincidence? 

After I published this post, I read the articles below. Does it seem like The Hindu has the same suspicion?

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/it-raids-on-dainik-bhaskar-group/article35458142.ece

Even Indian Express seems to think the same: https://indianexpress.com/article/india/dainik-bhaskar-tax-raids-7416460/

Additional reading 

• https://vbala99.blogspot.com/2021/04/covid-deaths-in-india.html
• Scroll.in: The lights begin to wink out in India’s democracy.
• India Today: Dainik Bhaskar Group evaded taxes on Rs 700 crore of income over 6 years: IT Department.
  

Anil Ambani And Me

As per this article, lockdown is supposed to be lifted because our cases are relatively low now, about 114,000 per day.

Reuters India: India to ease lockdown rules as coronavirus case numbers decline.

This is my Corona tracker - shows the new cases, deaths, recoveries every day from April 2020. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mrcYiTOuwGjqUomO9vsUQLuY-5DwlgPs7nY8RhmyuPw/edit?usp=drivesdk

In the 1st wave, the highest number of cases was on Sep 16, 2020 and it was about 100,000. The number that was highest (new cases per day) in the 1st wave happens to be the lowest in the 2nd wave and the same number is almost a cause for celebration now.

I am reminded of the time College graduates in the US celebrated spring break because the temperature rose to 10C and all students would be out in shorts whereas in Calcutta the same 10C temperature would be the coldest day all winter and people would be dressed indoors in wollens and socks and shawl.

Take another example. Anil Ambani and I are about equally wealthy - marginally above bankruptcy. I see my wealth as high because I came from a zero. Anil sees his as zero because he came from billions.

As a friend of mine would say it's all about "nazariya ka farq" (difference in point of view). After seeing 400,000 new cases per day 114,000 seems like nothing. How you see a number depends on where you are coming from.

Be Safe

 I came this forward in social media today.

It is sensible though not completely correct.

It's like saying "if you want to be safe, dress conservatively or stay home." 

Men tend to think that the safety of women has to be addressed solely by women.

Women tend to think their own safety is the sole responsibility of men (that men have to be restrained). Neither belief is right in isolation.

Safety has to be ensured by both parties. One party by playing safe and the other party by ensuring safety. 

Here is another:

NDTV reporter's clever question to a Doctor at a Govt hospital:

"There are so many COVID patients and the government does not provide beds,ICUs and Oxygen for all? Do you think Modi Govt has failed?”

Answered the pragmatic and hardworking doctor:

"Suppose you people are 10 members in the house and what to do if all 10 out of 10 get diarrhea at the same time? Will it have arrangement of 10 toilets in your house ????? Will you say the architect is a lousy professional?”

The Reporter Disappeared......

😂😂😂😂

Staying safe is our duty too!!!

No country can handle a pandemic well does not imply that India and Western countries are equally good in providing healthcare.

Is It Your Turn?

The way things are right now in the country, the question "Is it my turn?" often pops up in my mind. My turn to get vaccinated, my turn to get hospitalized or to get the Covid virus, or to get an Oxygen cylinder or to get buried.

I have become more morbid reading news and more news. 

But is this the way to be? There are other ways I could use my time (apart from doing my daily chores). Many people do volunteer work, they try to arrange for food, medicines, cylinders for people that need them.

Others learn new languages, attend online courses, take up new hobbies, teach online. 

None of this seemed to be my cup of tea. I have always been an avid reader. Now in the past few months I have been reading novels almost every night on my Kindle. Is it useful? I don't know. But it definitely provides relaxation and diversion from the non-fiction (news, other articles) that I read extensively.

My genre is legal thrillers, action, thriller etc. I download free novels identified by bookbub.com and read them every night.

And then I forget all about Covid.

People In Glass Houses

 

""Oxygen plants are essential. It is irresponsible not to have them," the bench said." - India Today: Batra Hospital runs out of oxygen, 8 patients die before Delhi govt rushes supply."

https://www.indiatoday.in/cities/delhi/story/batra-hospital-runs-out-of-oxygen-8-covid-patients-die-1796959-2021-05-01

Of late, high courts and supreme court have been castigating various entities like the election commission (for allowing political rallies during the pandemic), Delhi administration and Central Government for having Oxygen shortage. 

(https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronavirus-lets-try-and-not-be-a-cry-baby-centre-to-delhi-on-oxygen-crisis-amid-covid-19-2421034)

What surprises is me the performance of the courts themselves. The number of cases pending and the rate of disposal of cases (I am not talking about the correctness of judgments) leaves a lot to be desired. Couple of my friends have filed divorce cases and these are running for more than a year and these are cases where the wife hasn't asked for alimony, child support. I attended one virtual court hearing where the judge gave new dates for EACH case because she was at home and no paperwork was available with her lordship. 

Just great.

Shouldn't the courts fix their own problems first.

Additional reading 

https://www.bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-outbreak/dont-clamp-down-on-citizen-voices-justice-chandrachud-warns-states

Covid Deaths In India

We have been hearing about crematoriums running all day long, burial grounds running out of space as we are almost touching 3000 corona deaths per day.

I looked up the normal death statistics in India. 

That's about 7.3 deaths per year per thousand population. With a population of about 135 crores (1350 million) our annual deaths should be about (7.3 / 1000) * (1350 * 1000000) = 9,855,000.

If we convert it to a per day basis, it is 9855000/ 365 = 27000.

That means that India's death rate normally is about 27000 per day. Remember that India's covid deaths are about 3000 per day (at the time of writing).

Covid deaths are just about 10% of the normal deaths. How come our crematoriums and burial grounds are overflowing with just 10% extra deaths?

If we consider Delhi with a population of 20 million, the daily deaths in the city normally would be (7.3/1000*20,000,000)/365 = 400. 

If we assume that the daily Covid deaths in cities in India are proportional to the population of the cities then covid deaths in Delhi should be about 10% of the normal deaths in Delhi and hence should be about 40. Is this number anywhere close to reality?

Read this:

https://www.ndtv.com/delhi-news/delhi-coronavirus-deaths-over-1-000-covid-deaths-missing-in-delhi-data-reveal-civic-records-2422628 - enlightening.

What gives?

A friend disagreed. This is what he had to say:

I do not disagree with this analysis and I am sure there are codifying errors that skew the numbers but the only angle I feel is not to be concluded as siva is saying... that the numbers are being manipulated with intent to do so ..for if that is the case then we need not see death rate go up from 150 a day on an averages to 3500 a day on an average.....

Also logistics wise in a normal death there will be. T+1 time window of the body reaching crematorium....and people will wait either for an overseas relative to come or even to get a slot in a crematorium of choice ....the 15 percent surge is now perhaps coming in like an adrenaline surge as bodies are being instantly disposed..causing the overload on the ecosystem....

Cruel scenes sans cruel intent in governance is my only submission....

Additional reading:

• https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/tnm-investigation-scores-covid-19-deaths-bengaluru-missing-state-count-147912
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/01/india-coronavirus/
  
• The Hindu: Facts and figures: On India’s COVID-19 death count.
  
• The Indian Express: In Bhopal, official Covid toll in April is 109, but over 2,500 at pyres, graves.
  
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/06/india-coronavirus-deaths/
  
• https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/indias-uncounted-covid-19-deaths
  
• The Wire: 'Not COVID': Stunned by Data, Gujarat Blames Death Certificate Spurt on Duplicate Registrations.
  
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-deadliest-covid-day/2021/05/19/2452925c-b89a-11eb-bc4a-62849cf6cca9_story.html - similar thoughts as mine expressed by Shahid Jameel
  
• Mint: The reality of this pandemic in our villages cannot stay hidden.
  
• The Hindu: It’s like participating in a procession of the dead, says Kolkata crematorium official.
  
• https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/shocking-drone-footage-shows-a-mass-burial-site-of-hundreds-of-covid-19-victims-on-the-banks-of-indias-ganges-river/ar-AAKgKPb?li=BBnb7Kz
  
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-coronavirus-ganges-river-bodies/2021/05/21/73cbced6-b811-11eb-bc4a-62849cf6cca9_story.html
  
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/30/covid-victims-overwhelm-delhi-crematoriums?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other - interesting that this article mentions that the daily deaths in Delhi is 395 as against normal daily deaths in Delhi mentioned earlier in this post of about 400.
  
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/24/india-covid-rural-india-deaths-modi/ - Quote:  "It’s probably an understatement to suggest that the real death toll is at least five times the actual figures."
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/24/india-failed-save-living-covid-19-now-it-wont-count-dead/ - Graphic video
  
• Just How Big Could India’s True Covid Toll Be? Numbers.
  
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/30/kumbh-mela-how-a-superspreader-festival-seeded-covid-across-india?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other: Quote "Why did only my father die when we were 11 members there?” said Thakur. “It is not a virus which kills. The death is destined. I have no regrets.” and "But as media attention focused on Covid-19 cases among the Kumbh returnees, the officials were ordered to stop counting. Four officials in different districts of Madhya Pradesh, as well as officials in Rajasthan, confirmed to the Guardian that their seniors called them off for political reasons."
• https://science.thewire.in/health/the-reasons-to-believe-indias-tragedy-is-worse-than-it-looks/
  
• The Indian Express: No Covid funerals for two straight days at East Delhi crematoriums.: Quote "On April 29 alone, 717 bodies came to the cremation grounds of Delhi for last rites as per covid-19 protocol, which means around 30 bodies every hour."
• https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/tn-underreported-covid-deaths-in-6-tn-hospitals-ngo-101623840130782.html
  
• https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-registers-fourth-fastest-weekly-growth-in-vaccinations-among-large-countries-11624516616268.html: "

  Cumulative 'excess deaths' across 8 states are 10.5 times reported covid-19 deaths"

• As India’s Lethal Covid Wave Neared, Politics Overrode Science
  
• Deccan Herald: Backlog of Covid-19 deaths surfaces in Bengaluru.
  
• India Is Stalling the W.H.O.’s Efforts to Make Global Covid Death Toll Public
  
• https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/health/covid-global-deaths.html?smid=url-copy
  

I Add Value

I track my money, investments on a monthly basis. After the markets plunged in Mar 2020, it was a rollercoaster ride for me, as it would have for anyone. And I had to constantly monitor what was happening to my money. Large cap to small cap stocks, gilt funds to ultra short term debt funds and money market funds - everything was volatile. I cut down on some types of investments, moved to other ones. And this active finance management continues till today. 

I am not sure whether equity is safe or debt or gold or just overnight funds. 

With this as the backdrop, I wondering this morning: how my investments as of Feb 2020 would be valued now assuming I had just gone to sleep in February and not made any changes. If I had not made any continuous changes to my portfolio I wanted to know how much less I would have now.

So I took my February 2020 data (units of each mutual fund, stocks etc) and applied today's NAV on those units. Guess how much I have more than the February 2020 investments at today's valuation?

Hardly any difference. The difference was very minor. I was aghast. Here, for 9 months I have played the role of an active fund manager. And I now realise that had I gone sleep for 9 months and woken up today, I would have been no worse off. That's quite humbling.

My time spent managing investments were an utter waste. I hope I atleast booked a good amount of capital losses (short term and long term) which would be useful while filling taxes for future years.

Moving on from finance to other things (such as social interactions), I wonder whether the same thing is true. Would my absence (and hence my presence) be irrelevant to others I interact with?

That's a scary thought. Is this common or usual? I mean the tendency to arrogate to ourselves a whole lot of efficacy or productivity when the reality is that the universe outside doesn't give a sh** (as was the case with my finance)?

If someone moves your cheese, is the best decision to just stay put? Rolling stone and moss and all that, huh?

There was one thing which I made a difference to. My emotions - I felt a sense of purpose with all the things I did in the last 9 months. That is a thing internal to me. By an external yardstick what I did counted for hardly anything. Is this the purpose of emotions and activity? To feel happy, sad or angry at minutae?

Perhaps the truth is that some few things we do do make a difference in the universe. The rest don't.

Tracking And Estimating Covid-19 Cases In India

I created this spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mrcYiTOuwGjqUomO9vsUQLuY-5DwlgPs7nY8RhmyuPw/edit?usp=drivesdk

I tracked total CUMULATIVE cases and deaths in India from Apr 21, 2020. The numbers were fairly low on this date - about 20,000 cases and 600 deaths total. 

The cases and deaths data for each date have been taken taken from 

https://www.covid19india.org/

As of Jul 29, 2020 there are about 1.5 million cases (including recovered cases and deaths) and 34,000 deaths.

The cases are currently doubling in 20 days while deaths are doubling at a slower pace: at 28 days.

The cases are increasing at about 3.5%/day while deaths are increasing at 2.4% / day. At the current rate, India will have about 41 million cases and 323,000 deaths by end of October 2020.

Note:

1. I have assumed that cases and deaths increase at the SAME rate to October as they are now.
2. Data till current date are actuals, while data for future dates (colored rows) are estimates.

Is Corona Serious?

I was discussing with a friend how little control I have now over things compared to say a year back - all because of Corona. 

She strongly disagreed with me. She said my belief that I had control earlier over my life was just an illusion. That I could just as well had met with an accident last year and lost my life. 

That all the data of probability of losing one's life last year being negligible would make no sense to the person who did lose their life last year. 

This was, hmm, quite a different way of looking at things. And I wasn't comfortable with her way of putting things. 

I couldn't exactly tell her that she was talking through her hat because she is well educated, has a sweet voice, a very pleasant accent, very touchy and anyways doesn't wear a hat. 

That didn't stop me from brooding on what she said. So I consulted the death statistics in India from 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India

The death rate is 7.3 per thousand population which is less than 1% of the population. 

And assuming India's population to be 130 crores (1300 million), the deaths in India in 4 months would be 1300*(4/12)*(7.3/1000) = 3 million  approx.

As of today, Corona deaths have amounted to 16,000 which is half a percent of the usual number of deaths in 4 months (Mar, Apr, May, Jun 29, 2020) in India. [3 million above]]

Less than half a percent. So, what are we really afraid of? Yeah, sure we may lose many 3 times that or 5 times that in the next 4 months. That's still 2 to 3% of the usual number of deaths. 

Was my friend right, after all? She can't be. She can barely count beyond single digits. Damn..

Truce Declared Between India And Pak In Jun 2020

In Feb and Mar 2020, it was China and rich Western countries leading in Corona cases and deaths.

In the last few days, the new cases are focused more in third world countries. See here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Pak has declared mosques open because of Ramzan. One can imagine the shape of Pak in Jun 2020, from the point of view of the virus.

Similarly, India's cases are likely to hit a peak by June 2020. Hordes of Tamils are leaving Dharavi (Mumbai) for Tirunelveli near the southern tip of India. Now Nellai (Tirunelveli) will get a dose of what Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai have. Just great. Bihari labourers already left Delhi for Bihar in March. 

What was an issue localised to urban India is now spreading to the rural parts.

By June, neither India nor Pak will be able to hold on to their pants. 

And my friend Tukun explained to me that when our hands are busy covering our private parts, we can't use our fingers to pull the trigger and shoot.

So there will be truce between India and Pak in June.

Let's celebrate Ramzan socially, let's have gala marriages like the CM's relative had in Bangalore last week. Let more people travel from infected areas to unaffected areas.
We will definitely get world peace.

Religion, Negotiation vs Nature

India Today: It’s time to stay in mosques, Allah will save us: Tablighi Jamaat chief told followers in leaked audio.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/it-s-time-to-stay-in-mosques-allah-will-save-us-tablighi-jamaat-chief-told-followers-in-leaked-audio-1662297-2020-04-01

This is the time when some (like the maulana) follow faith and disregard science. This is also the time when we find that the bluster and negotiation skills of people (like Donald Trump) doesn't work with nature. 

I used to wonder what exactly was different with people like Trump. Trump with his grandstanding, with his tendency to bamboozle, berate, belittle others, lie pathologically has been effective with humans. 

His tendencies fail to be effective against nature. This is typical of people without content.

There was an article in New York Times on Apr 6, 2020 along similar lines: Autocrats’ Dilemma: You Can’t Arrest a Virus