Monday, June 29, 2020

Is Corona Serious?

I was discussing with a friend how little control I have now over things compared to say a year back - all because of Corona. 

She strongly disagreed with me. She said my belief that I had control earlier over my life was just an illusion. That I could just as well had met with an accident last year and lost my life. 

That all the data of probability of losing one's life last year being negligible would make no sense to the person who did lose their life last year. 

This was, hmm, quite a different way of looking at things. And I wasn't comfortable with her way of putting things. 

I couldn't exactly tell her that she was talking through her hat because she is well educated, has a sweet voice, a very pleasant accent, very touchy and anyways doesn't wear a hat. 

That didn't stop me from brooding on what she said. So I consulted the death statistics in India from 

The death rate is 7.3 per thousand population which is less than 1% of the population. 

And assuming India's population to be 130 crores (1300 million), the deaths in India in 4 months would be 1300*(4/12)*(7.3/1000) = 3 million  approx.

As of today, Corona deaths have amounted to 16,000 which is half a percent of the usual number of deaths in 4 months (Mar, Apr, May, Jun 29, 2020) in India. [3 million above]]

Less than half a percent. So, what are we really afraid of? Yeah, sure we may lose many 3 times that or 5 times that in the next 4 months. That's still 2 to 3% of the usual number of deaths. 

Was my friend right, after all? She can't be. She can barely count beyond single digits. Damn..

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