Covid Deaths In India

We have been hearing about crematoriums running all day long, burial grounds running out of space as we are almost touching 3000 corona deaths per day.

I looked up the normal death statistics in India. 

That's about 7.3 deaths per year per thousand population. With a population of about 135 crores (1350 million) our annual deaths should be about (7.3 / 1000) * (1350 * 1000000) = 9,855,000.

If we convert it to a per day basis, it is 9855000/ 365 = 27000.

That means that India's death rate normally is about 27000 per day. Remember that India's covid deaths are about 3000 per day (at the time of writing).

Covid deaths are just about 10% of the normal deaths. How come our crematoriums and burial grounds are overflowing with just 10% extra deaths?

If we consider Delhi with a population of 20 million, the daily deaths in the city normally would be (7.3/1000*20,000,000)/365 = 400. 

If we assume that the daily Covid deaths in cities in India are proportional to the population of the cities then covid deaths in Delhi should be about 10% of the normal deaths in Delhi and hence should be about 40. Is this number anywhere close to reality?

Read this:

https://www.ndtv.com/delhi-news/delhi-coronavirus-deaths-over-1-000-covid-deaths-missing-in-delhi-data-reveal-civic-records-2422628 - enlightening.

What gives?

A friend disagreed. This is what he had to say:

I do not disagree with this analysis and I am sure there are codifying errors that skew the numbers but the only angle I feel is not to be concluded as siva is saying... that the numbers are being manipulated with intent to do so ..for if that is the case then we need not see death rate go up from 150 a day on an averages to 3500 a day on an average.....

Also logistics wise in a normal death there will be. T+1 time window of the body reaching crematorium....and people will wait either for an overseas relative to come or even to get a slot in a crematorium of choice ....the 15 percent surge is now perhaps coming in like an adrenaline surge as bodies are being instantly disposed..causing the overload on the ecosystem....

Cruel scenes sans cruel intent in governance is my only submission....

Additional reading:

• https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/tnm-investigation-scores-covid-19-deaths-bengaluru-missing-state-count-147912
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/01/india-coronavirus/
  
• The Hindu: Facts and figures: On India’s COVID-19 death count.
  
• The Indian Express: In Bhopal, official Covid toll in April is 109, but over 2,500 at pyres, graves.
  
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/06/india-coronavirus-deaths/
  
• https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/indias-uncounted-covid-19-deaths
  
• The Wire: 'Not COVID': Stunned by Data, Gujarat Blames Death Certificate Spurt on Duplicate Registrations.
  
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-deadliest-covid-day/2021/05/19/2452925c-b89a-11eb-bc4a-62849cf6cca9_story.html - similar thoughts as mine expressed by Shahid Jameel
  
• Mint: The reality of this pandemic in our villages cannot stay hidden.
  
• The Hindu: It’s like participating in a procession of the dead, says Kolkata crematorium official.
  
• https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/shocking-drone-footage-shows-a-mass-burial-site-of-hundreds-of-covid-19-victims-on-the-banks-of-indias-ganges-river/ar-AAKgKPb?li=BBnb7Kz
  
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-coronavirus-ganges-river-bodies/2021/05/21/73cbced6-b811-11eb-bc4a-62849cf6cca9_story.html
  
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/30/covid-victims-overwhelm-delhi-crematoriums?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other - interesting that this article mentions that the daily deaths in Delhi is 395 as against normal daily deaths in Delhi mentioned earlier in this post of about 400.
  
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/24/india-covid-rural-india-deaths-modi/ - Quote:  "It’s probably an understatement to suggest that the real death toll is at least five times the actual figures."
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/24/india-failed-save-living-covid-19-now-it-wont-count-dead/ - Graphic video
  
• Just How Big Could India’s True Covid Toll Be? Numbers.
  
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/30/kumbh-mela-how-a-superspreader-festival-seeded-covid-across-india?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other: Quote "Why did only my father die when we were 11 members there?” said Thakur. “It is not a virus which kills. The death is destined. I have no regrets.” and "But as media attention focused on Covid-19 cases among the Kumbh returnees, the officials were ordered to stop counting. Four officials in different districts of Madhya Pradesh, as well as officials in Rajasthan, confirmed to the Guardian that their seniors called them off for political reasons."
• https://science.thewire.in/health/the-reasons-to-believe-indias-tragedy-is-worse-than-it-looks/
  
• The Indian Express: No Covid funerals for two straight days at East Delhi crematoriums.: Quote "On April 29 alone, 717 bodies came to the cremation grounds of Delhi for last rites as per covid-19 protocol, which means around 30 bodies every hour."
• https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/tn-underreported-covid-deaths-in-6-tn-hospitals-ngo-101623840130782.html
  
• https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-registers-fourth-fastest-weekly-growth-in-vaccinations-among-large-countries-11624516616268.html: "

  Cumulative 'excess deaths' across 8 states are 10.5 times reported covid-19 deaths"

• As India’s Lethal Covid Wave Neared, Politics Overrode Science
  
• Deccan Herald: Backlog of Covid-19 deaths surfaces in Bengaluru.
  
• India Is Stalling the W.H.O.’s Efforts to Make Global Covid Death Toll Public
  
• https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/health/covid-global-deaths.html?smid=url-copy
  

Self Esteem And Wisdom

Self esteem is about knowing how good you are despite adverse feedback. 

Sometimes we disregard adverse feedback and focus only on what we think. And then reality hits us (that we aren't as good as we thought). We should take external feedback. There is a nugget of truth there even if very unpalatable.

These are 2 extremes.

Wisdom is about knowing how much to focus on external feedback and how much on our self appraisal.

RIP, Sir

 This morning, an elderly gentleman, whose acquaintance I got through a friend of mine, died of Covid. He was admitted to the hospital on Monday, to the ICU and on ventilator on Tuesday. Today, Wednesday, it was all over. Earlier in the month he went through an orthopaedic surgery. He came back home, he seemed to recover from the surgery. Probably he caught the virus at the hospital. 

The man was unassuming, quiet, polite and a hero. Probably a war hero too, I am not sure. But in his personal life he was a hero. His wife was bedridden for about 15 years and he took care of her. After his wife's death he took care of his adult daughters both of whom were undergoing depression for many years and hence largely incapable of shouldering responsibilty. In facing, these adversities, he didn't show much pain. He faced life as it came. The one time I spoke to him and asked him how he could do all that he did, he told me there really wasn't much of a decision to make. Certain things were to be done, he did them. That's all.

That's all, is it? When I turn around and see humanity around me and the complaints that each of us has, I wonder. How many of us can hold a candle to the hero?

I only wish I had met him and had known him better. 

RIP, sir.

India And Scandinavia

The difference between an advanced country and a third world country is that the former is rule bound while the latter is negotiation bound. For example in countries like India and Pakistan, things get done based on who knows who. A typical example is how FATF recommendations are implemented in Pakistan. Knee-jerk actions are taken by the government just before FATF meeting is to take place instead of planned regular actions in the true spirit of eliminating terrorism and terror financing.

In countries like New Zealand, Sweden things are rule bound largely. Rules are clear and implemented well with little deviation.

What about Saudi (KSA)? Which group does it belong to? It is rule bound. Is it hence an advanced country? Not really. An advanced country has another attribute, it's relatively free. The list of things that are illegal will be minimal. Saudi obviously doesn't fit into this category. While every country has a dominant religion (Hinduism in India, Christianity in Italy, Judaism in Israel for example), when the judicial laws are derived from religious considerations rather than from civil ones, we end up having a state that is not free. When we try to drive the answer to a problem from religious texts rather than from rational considerations, we end up traveling a suboptimal path to mediocrity. Religion, like lingerie, should be limited to the bedroom. It should not be bandied about in public.

Here is a question to the reader: If Shariat law were to be implemented in Norway, how will Norway be after 10 years? On top of the world (I don't mean geographically)? Replace Shariat law with any other religious law and combine it with religious fervor - the result would be the same. 

The same thing would happen if the guiding book were to be any other religious treatise.

If we surrender reason to obey what's mentioned in a book, we do it because we are mentally weak (we don't have reasoning ability) or we are emotionally weak (we find it easier to fast for a month or donate our hair or make a trip to Vaishnodevi or Jerusalem or Mecca) than work rationally towards the problem.

It's interesting to see how the advanced country which gives so much freedom to its people also effectively implements rules. 

And it's sad to see third world countries, on the other hand, curb freedom and are haphazard in implementing rules. Pakistan is a good example, to a smaller extent so is India.

What is China? It's again like Saudi.- Very little freedom given and no democracy. India is heading towards what Pakistan and China are instead of towards Scandinavia and UK.

What is the route like to go from being a third world country to ask advanced country?

How does India get to become like Scandinavia? 

Good questions.

Religion / Faith / Networking (RFN) aren't alternatives to good processes. Where they are treated to be substitutes for processes, we are well on our way to becoming a third world country. The more we remove RFN from our nation, the faster we head towards New Zealand.

Additional reading:

https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/the-country-s-problem-is-its-romance-with-informality-11619366101367.html Excellent 

Maths Puzzles - Probability

 A friend sent me this.