Covid Deaths In India

We have been hearing about crematoriums running all day long, burial grounds running out of space as we are almost touching 3000 corona deaths per day.

I looked up the normal death statistics in India. 

That's about 7.3 deaths per year per thousand population. With a population of about 135 crores (1350 million) our annual deaths should be about (7.3 / 1000) * (1350 * 1000000) = 9,855,000.

If we convert it to a per day basis, it is 9855000/ 365 = 27000.

That means that India's death rate normally is about 27000 per day. Remember that India's covid deaths are about 3000 per day (at the time of writing).

Covid deaths are just about 10% of the normal deaths. How come our crematoriums and burial grounds are overflowing with just 10% extra deaths?

If we consider Delhi with a population of 20 million, the daily deaths in the city normally would be (7.3/1000*20,000,000)/365 = 400. 

If we assume that the daily Covid deaths in cities in India are proportional to the population of the cities then covid deaths in Delhi should be about 10% of the normal deaths in Delhi and hence should be about 40. Is this number anywhere close to reality?

Read this:

https://www.ndtv.com/delhi-news/delhi-coronavirus-deaths-over-1-000-covid-deaths-missing-in-delhi-data-reveal-civic-records-2422628 - enlightening.

What gives?

A friend disagreed. This is what he had to say:

I do not disagree with this analysis and I am sure there are codifying errors that skew the numbers but the only angle I feel is not to be concluded as siva is saying... that the numbers are being manipulated with intent to do so ..for if that is the case then we need not see death rate go up from 150 a day on an averages to 3500 a day on an average.....

Also logistics wise in a normal death there will be. T+1 time window of the body reaching crematorium....and people will wait either for an overseas relative to come or even to get a slot in a crematorium of choice ....the 15 percent surge is now perhaps coming in like an adrenaline surge as bodies are being instantly disposed..causing the overload on the ecosystem....

Cruel scenes sans cruel intent in governance is my only submission....

Additional reading:

• https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/tnm-investigation-scores-covid-19-deaths-bengaluru-missing-state-count-147912
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/01/india-coronavirus/
  
• The Hindu: Facts and figures: On India’s COVID-19 death count.
  
• The Indian Express: In Bhopal, official Covid toll in April is 109, but over 2,500 at pyres, graves.
  
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/05/06/india-coronavirus-deaths/
  
• https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/indias-uncounted-covid-19-deaths
  
• The Wire: 'Not COVID': Stunned by Data, Gujarat Blames Death Certificate Spurt on Duplicate Registrations.
  
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-deadliest-covid-day/2021/05/19/2452925c-b89a-11eb-bc4a-62849cf6cca9_story.html - similar thoughts as mine expressed by Shahid Jameel
  
• Mint: The reality of this pandemic in our villages cannot stay hidden.
  
• The Hindu: It’s like participating in a procession of the dead, says Kolkata crematorium official.
  
• https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/shocking-drone-footage-shows-a-mass-burial-site-of-hundreds-of-covid-19-victims-on-the-banks-of-indias-ganges-river/ar-AAKgKPb?li=BBnb7Kz
  
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-coronavirus-ganges-river-bodies/2021/05/21/73cbced6-b811-11eb-bc4a-62849cf6cca9_story.html
  
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/30/covid-victims-overwhelm-delhi-crematoriums?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other - interesting that this article mentions that the daily deaths in Delhi is 395 as against normal daily deaths in Delhi mentioned earlier in this post of about 400.
  
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/24/india-covid-rural-india-deaths-modi/ - Quote:  "It’s probably an understatement to suggest that the real death toll is at least five times the actual figures."
• https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/24/india-failed-save-living-covid-19-now-it-wont-count-dead/ - Graphic video
  
• Just How Big Could India’s True Covid Toll Be? Numbers.
  
• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/30/kumbh-mela-how-a-superspreader-festival-seeded-covid-across-india?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other: Quote "Why did only my father die when we were 11 members there?” said Thakur. “It is not a virus which kills. The death is destined. I have no regrets.” and "But as media attention focused on Covid-19 cases among the Kumbh returnees, the officials were ordered to stop counting. Four officials in different districts of Madhya Pradesh, as well as officials in Rajasthan, confirmed to the Guardian that their seniors called them off for political reasons."
• https://science.thewire.in/health/the-reasons-to-believe-indias-tragedy-is-worse-than-it-looks/
  
• The Indian Express: No Covid funerals for two straight days at East Delhi crematoriums.: Quote "On April 29 alone, 717 bodies came to the cremation grounds of Delhi for last rites as per covid-19 protocol, which means around 30 bodies every hour."
• https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/tn-underreported-covid-deaths-in-6-tn-hospitals-ngo-101623840130782.html
  
• https://www.livemint.com/news/india/india-registers-fourth-fastest-weekly-growth-in-vaccinations-among-large-countries-11624516616268.html: "

  Cumulative 'excess deaths' across 8 states are 10.5 times reported covid-19 deaths"

• As India’s Lethal Covid Wave Neared, Politics Overrode Science
  
• Deccan Herald: Backlog of Covid-19 deaths surfaces in Bengaluru.
  
• India Is Stalling the W.H.O.’s Efforts to Make Global Covid Death Toll Public
  
• https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/05/health/covid-global-deaths.html?smid=url-copy
  

Self Esteem And Wisdom

Self esteem is about knowing how good you are despite adverse feedback. 

Sometimes we disregard adverse feedback and focus only on what we think. And then reality hits us (that we aren't as good as we thought). We should take external feedback. There is a nugget of truth there even if very unpalatable.

These are 2 extremes.

Wisdom is about knowing how much to focus on external feedback and how much on our self appraisal.

RIP, Sir

 This morning, an elderly gentleman, whose acquaintance I got through a friend of mine, died of Covid. He was admitted to the hospital on Monday, to the ICU and on ventilator on Tuesday. Today, Wednesday, it was all over. Earlier in the month he went through an orthopaedic surgery. He came back home, he seemed to recover from the surgery. Probably he caught the virus at the hospital. 

The man was unassuming, quiet, polite and a hero. Probably a war hero too, I am not sure. But in his personal life he was a hero. His wife was bedridden for about 15 years and he took care of her. After his wife's death he took care of his adult daughters both of whom were undergoing depression for many years and hence largely incapable of shouldering responsibilty. In facing, these adversities, he didn't show much pain. He faced life as it came. The one time I spoke to him and asked him how he could do all that he did, he told me there really wasn't much of a decision to make. Certain things were to be done, he did them. That's all.

That's all, is it? When I turn around and see humanity around me and the complaints that each of us has, I wonder. How many of us can hold a candle to the hero?

I only wish I had met him and had known him better. 

RIP, sir.

India And Scandinavia

The difference between an advanced country and a third world country is that the former is rule bound while the latter is negotiation bound. For example in countries like India and Pakistan, things get done based on who knows who. A typical example is how FATF recommendations are implemented in Pakistan. Knee-jerk actions are taken by the government just before FATF meeting is to take place instead of planned regular actions in the true spirit of eliminating terrorism and terror financing.

In countries like New Zealand, Sweden things are rule bound largely. Rules are clear and implemented well with little deviation.

What about Saudi (KSA)? Which group does it belong to? It is rule bound. Is it hence an advanced country? Not really. An advanced country has another attribute, it's relatively free. The list of things that are illegal will be minimal. Saudi obviously doesn't fit into this category. While every country has a dominant religion (Hinduism in India, Christianity in Italy, Judaism in Israel for example), when the judicial laws are derived from religious considerations rather than from civil ones, we end up having a state that is not free. When we try to drive the answer to a problem from religious texts rather than from rational considerations, we end up traveling a suboptimal path to mediocrity. Religion, like lingerie, should be limited to the bedroom. It should not be bandied about in public.

Here is a question to the reader: If Shariat law were to be implemented in Norway, how will Norway be after 10 years? On top of the world (I don't mean geographically)? Replace Shariat law with any other religious law and combine it with religious fervor - the result would be the same. 

The same thing would happen if the guiding book were to be any other religious treatise.

If we surrender reason to obey what's mentioned in a book, we do it because we are mentally weak (we don't have reasoning ability) or we are emotionally weak (we find it easier to fast for a month or donate our hair or make a trip to Vaishnodevi or Jerusalem or Mecca) than work rationally towards the problem.

It's interesting to see how the advanced country which gives so much freedom to its people also effectively implements rules. 

And it's sad to see third world countries, on the other hand, curb freedom and are haphazard in implementing rules. Pakistan is a good example, to a smaller extent so is India.

What is China? It's again like Saudi.- Very little freedom given and no democracy. India is heading towards what Pakistan and China are instead of towards Scandinavia and UK.

What is the route like to go from being a third world country to ask advanced country?

How does India get to become like Scandinavia? 

Good questions.

Religion / Faith / Networking (RFN) aren't alternatives to good processes. Where they are treated to be substitutes for processes, we are well on our way to becoming a third world country. The more we remove RFN from our nation, the faster we head towards New Zealand.

Additional reading:

https://www.livemint.com/opinion/online-views/the-country-s-problem-is-its-romance-with-informality-11619366101367.html Excellent 

Maths Puzzles - Probability

 A friend sent me this. 

One Year Of Covid

It's been a year since we have had this pernicious virus in our lives. At the end of the year, since last March when India was locked down, I wanted to see what I had done - a kind of self appraisal. A friend of mine asked me this question: what was I upto. And I couldn't give him any answer, I was blank.

I discussed this with another friend and she helped me put things in perspective. I take care of my elderly mother with a maid and a nurse. Household chores including cooking, getting groceries, getting medical supplies including diapers were difficult in the months of April and May 2000. We were just getting acquainted with "social distancing", shops were open only for a few hours each day, Amazon wasn't delivering.

My friend helped me realise that I had managed my 2 households fairly well never running out of stocks (well I did almost run out of shorts for myself but then another friend helped me in the nick of time), never missing salary payments to my household help.

Then I helped a friend prepare for her MRCS exam - the exam, conducted by UK, tests proficiency in candidate's knowledge of surgery. My friend passed the test in her first attempt. 

My mother had had her wrist fractured last year and I had to figure out whether to go for surgery in the middle of Covid or resort to plaster of paris. Half the orthopaedic surgeons suggested the former, half the latter. I got my mother through this predicament and her fracture is now healed (thanks specially to my surgeon friend and another neighbour who is an orthopaedic surgeon).

I managed these in times when people were getting infected, hospitalized around me and when couple of relatives died. 

And I made some money along the way despite not having a job, despite having plenty of expenditure each month.

Looking back, I see that it wasn't a bad performance. 

India Vs UK

A friend said to me after yesterday's T20 cricket match between India and England:

India is punching its weight in the world.

I am rather struck by seeing how India is dictatating what it does, and punching above its weight in the world. We hear that India is refusing to export AZ vaccine to the UK because of some problems, whatever that is. That has got the government here all in a frenzy about whether it can reach their promised targets by the summer.

Who would have thought some 40 years ago that India would tell the West what it wants and can do to help them?

Gone are the days when India was at the mercy of others for science and technology. Let's not even talk about cricket. As someone said, India is the centre of the cricket universe! England and Australia have just had some bitter medicine.

 

I replied:

Well, India still has miles to go. I would say England punches above its weight consistently. A country (is England really a country in the first place or just a part of UK) of about 5 crore people facing a country of 130 crore in cricket. The results don't seem to indicate a 5 to 130 handicap.

Let's not even get to football. And same in most other spheres. 

UK makes India look like the David (instead of like Goliath).  That's embarrassing.

My friend wrapped it up:

England is a football nation. The irony however is that it has never won the World Cup or even the Euro Cup in football. Aa far as cricket is concerned, it won the World Cup for the first time only in 2019 after a dramatic and controversial finish. In tennis, it produced a British (Scottish) champion after 72 years.

So England or shall I say UK for now (until it splits and becomes England only), it is definitely not punching above its weight in sport. Just trying to, but not quite reached there yet.

EK215

Interesting flight route: Dubai to Los Angeles straight across the North Pole.

Note of caution: 

This post, like it's predecessor, does not talk about any shopping in Dubai nor about actors in Hollywood. Feminine people can skip this post.

The flight below, EK215 from Dubai to Los Angeles, flies straight up from Dubai over Kara sea, Russia (about 70E, 80N) and then over North Pole and then down the other side (about 120W, 80N) and then down Canada to LA. I tracked the flight from about 6PM IST to 7:30PM IST. The lat-long values during that period are given above. In both cases the latitude is about 80N. At the start of tracking, I saw it on this side of the pole in flightradar24. At the end of the period it was on the Canadian side (having crossed the North pole - while I was having my dinner). Amazing. But the more interesting part was that the flightradar24 route tracking isn't good beyond 80N. It's unable to rotate the earth and zoom into 80deg+ latitudes and locate/show polar flights. 

I was irritated. So I googled and figured that Google Earth could do just that and downloaded it. So in the picture below in the 3rd and 4th parts I marked the the starting point and the final destination (which goes over the 2nd lat-long) in Google Earth. Turned out to be a lovely way to track EK215. I wish flightradar24 could do this. The starting point shown in the 3rd picture is Dubai: you can see Saudi Arabia. The point 6395km from Dubai is where the flight was when at 6PM. The points marked off in Google Earth are approximate. In the 4th part of the picture, I have tracked the route on Google Earth till LA. You need to zoom in to the 3rd and 4th parts in the picture to understand better.

The 1st and 2nd parts show the flight route on flightradar24 at 7:30PM IST just after it had crossed the North pole. The 2nd picture is just a zoomed out picture of the first. Unfortunately I don't have the 6PM flightradar24 picture when the flight was near Kara sea on the Russian side.

(You can also click this link to see the same 4part picture.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EsJ02lM20ErH7qOnh56WpuQb-A8uG99O/view?usp=drivesdk)

For the first part of this article on interesting flight routes read https://vbala99.blogspot.com/2015/05/interesting-flight-routes.html

The flight stats for this flight are here: https://www.radarbox.com/data/flights/EK215/1549352072/log

Male And Female Response

A friend of mine teaches art to children. The youngest of her students is 5 years old, a girl - Aadya. Another of her students is a boy, 6 years old - Udit.

My friend told me that Aadya always wears pants or shorts and rarely wears skirts or frocks - the child's reason being that her dresses have become too tight. And Aadya's parents and grandparents affectionately call her Aadu. And my friend also told me that Aadya hates to be called Aadu by anyone else. 

Hearing all this, my hands were itching. I had to do something.

I am a connoisseur of art and a fairly accomplished painter.  So I sat down and made a sketch of Aadu.

She is wearing a skirt and her name is there below the sketch I drew of her. My friend showed Aadu this sketch and said that a friend had drawn this. 

Aadu apparently blushed and smiled cutely and asked her teacher, my friend, to thank me. She didn't seem annoyed that I had referred to her as Aadu.

Next I drew a portrait of 6 year old Udit. My friend showed Udit this picture below.

Udit responded that the picture didn't look like him. His hair and teeth were missing and so were his spectacles, he pointed out to his teacher. He wasn't impressed with my efforts.

I wondered.  How different the two models' responses were.

Aadu's response was feminine. She liked the fact that I took the trouble of drawing her and called her Aadu. She was touched.

Udit judged my drawing the male way. That it was terrible and had no likeness to him.

Female and male responses are so different even at this age. What is relevant here? The quality of the sketch in isolation? Or the fact that someone took the trouble to draw you? 

I can proudly say that I am 100% male. My response would be exactly the same as 6 year old Udit's.

Additional reading:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eDoICtGSWVkmRIKuGc9yJb-k2WUzAPTJ/view?usp=drivesdk

Inefficient By Choice

 Decades ago, my place of work was the guesthouse of my employer's client. Couple of the client's employees, middle-aged, also used to stay in the same guesthouse. One of them, a Telugu gentleman, was pally with me. He told me that he found it useful to be inefficient in his routing algorithm. When he could do two or more things optimally, he would choose a suboptimal route - so he would end up doing his chores one at a time. 

His explanation was that when you have surplus time, you need to find a way to fill it. What better way than to be intentionally inefficient. 

I remembered all this when I found myself inadvertently doing what my old friend had suggested.